Political scenario

Most polls are projecting the UPA ahead at present; but by and large most polls have proved to be wrong especially in the past few years. It is likely that we will be inundated with more polls in the days to come. But it is unlikely that any of these polls would be able to make an accurate prediction. Here's my take on the present scenario:.

Let's start with the UPA. The main reason for the UPA's win in the previous elections was its spectacular performance in Bihar, Andhra, Tamil Nadu and its good show in Maharashtra and also in Gujarat. But unfortunately, in all these states the UPA is in trouble. Bihar could see a Nitish wave, in Maharashtra the Congress has 'pawar' problems coupled with anti-incumbency against their government. YSR is facing anti-incumbency in Andhra and Jayalalitha seems all set for a sweep in Tamil Nadu. All this doesn't look good for the UPA, which is going to struggle to reach 200 seats. Its present allies like Mamta, Pawar and Mulayam will have no qualms in deserting the UPA in a post-poll scenario. All said and done, the situation looks bleak for the UPA.

Coming to the NDA, things unfortunately don't look too good. Maharashtra, Bihar, Gujarat and Karnataka are states where the NDA is likely to sweep the polls. But in big states like AP, UP, WB & TN they are likely to draw a blank. They had already reached a peak in Rajasthan, Punjab and MP, where this time they will lose seats in all these places. All their hopes now hinge on UP. They need to increase their score in UP, if they want to cross 200 seats. And to add to their woes, Patnaik has ditched them in Orissa. If the NDA can cross 200 seats, then people like Jayalalitha, Chandrababu Naidu, Mamta and maybe even Pawar will be happy to offer their support (for their pound of flesh, of course!).

And finally the Third Front. The left parties are going to be trounced in Kerala and will lose heavily in West Bengal. So, they are unlikely to be a major force (not more than 35 seats). And Deve Gowda is unlikely to get more than 2 seats. The rest of the Third Front are likely to do well. Between them Mayawati, Jayalalitha and Chandrababu Naidu are likely to get anywhere between 80-110 seats. Jayalalitha and Naidu are unlikely to go with UPA, but may go with NDA. Mayawati of course will go with however will make her PM.

So, are we going to see a Third Front Government? Unlikely! The Third Front cannot get more than 120 seats. To form a govt, it has to split the NDA & UPA. The problem is SP-BSP will not work together, neither will Nitish-Lalu, DMK-AIADMK, Shiv Sena-Left. So no chance of a Third Front government.

So, the possibilities are:

1. UPA government (unlikely)
2. NDA government (again unlikely)
3. NDA + Jaya + Naidu + Mamta (possible if NDA cross 200 seats)
4. NDA + Mayawati (possible, but Maya will want the top gaddi)
5. UPA + SP + Left (possible if SP does well, but Left will demand a change in PM)
6. UPA + Left + Maya (again possible, but Maya will demand the PM's post)
7. Third Front + NDA partners + UPA partners (Very unikely)
8. Third Front government + UPA partners supported from outside by Congress (possible scenario as Congress & Left will try to prevent BJP govt)
9. Third Front government + NDA partners supported from outside by BJP (again possible, maybe headed by Maya or Nitish)

These are the scenarios as on date, but one never knows how things will develop as the campaign starts. As they say, watch this space!