Alliance Woes

There's still a month to go before elections and already the alliance woes have started for all the three fronts.

At the time of writing this post, Lalu has pulled a fast one on the Congress and finalised a deal with Paswan leaving only three seats for the Grand old party. In UP, Mulayam has already ditched the Congress and will be fighting on his own. 'Pawar' problems for the Congress continue in Maharashtra and the Congress is in confusion whether to fight the elections in Karnataka on its own or with the JD(S). The only silver lining is the tie-up with Mamta in Bengal, but again it looks as though Mamta will benefit more from the tie-up.

The NDA is no better position. The BJD has deserted it, Amma from Tamil Nadu is not interested to tie-up with NDA. And in Andhra, neither Naidu nor Chiranjeevi wants to tie up with them. Their deal with the Shiv Sena though is through and the tie-up with the JD(U) seems to be sealed in Bihar. UP, Haryana and Assam are other places where the NDA has entered into tie-ups with Ajit Singh, Chautala and AGP respectively.

The fledgeling Third Front is in trouble even before it started. Behenji wants to be PM and doesn't want to tie up with anyone. The Left has tied-up with Jayalalitha and Naidu, but knows that both of them are capable of ditching the left after the elections. And poor Deve Gowda is still enamoured of the PM post for him or his son, but he will find it difficult to get more than 2 seats in Karnataka. And by the way, the Left is having its own alliance problems in

So, which alliance has the advantages? None of these! It is only after the results are out, we will know where each party stands w.r.t alliances.

Predictions

Pollsters are unlikely to get it right this time. But let's anyway take a look at what they are saying:

Poll	UPA	NDA	Third Front & Others
CNN-IBN-CSDS	215-235	165-185	123-163
Times of India	201	195	147
DNA	202	174	167

Political scenario

Most polls are projecting the UPA ahead at present; but by and large most polls have proved to be wrong especially in the past few years. It is likely that we will be inundated with more polls in the days to come. But it is unlikely that any of these polls would be able to make an accurate prediction. Here's my take on the present scenario:.

Let's start with the UPA. The main reason for the UPA's win in the previous elections was its spectacular performance in Bihar, Andhra, Tamil Nadu and its good show in Maharashtra and also in Gujarat. But unfortunately, in all these states the UPA is in trouble. Bihar could see a Nitish wave, in Maharashtra the Congress has 'pawar' problems coupled with anti-incumbency against their government. YSR is facing anti-incumbency in Andhra and Jayalalitha seems all set for a sweep in Tamil Nadu. All this doesn't look good for the UPA, which is going to struggle to reach 200 seats. Its present allies like Mamta, Pawar and Mulayam will have no qualms in deserting the UPA in a post-poll scenario. All said and done, the situation looks bleak for the UPA.

Coming to the NDA, things unfortunately don't look too good. Maharashtra, Bihar, Gujarat and Karnataka are states where the NDA is likely to sweep the polls. But in big states like AP, UP, WB & TN they are likely to draw a blank. They had already reached a peak in Rajasthan, Punjab and MP, where this time they will lose seats in all these places. All their hopes now hinge on UP. They need to increase their score in UP, if they want to cross 200 seats. And to add to their woes, Patnaik has ditched them in Orissa. If the NDA can cross 200 seats, then people like Jayalalitha, Chandrababu Naidu, Mamta and maybe even Pawar will be happy to offer their support (for their pound of flesh, of course!).

And finally the Third Front. The left parties are going to be trounced in Kerala and will lose heavily in West Bengal. So, they are unlikely to be a major force (not more than 35 seats). And Deve Gowda is unlikely to get more than 2 seats. The rest of the Third Front are likely to do well. Between them Mayawati, Jayalalitha and Chandrababu Naidu are likely to get anywhere between 80-110 seats. Jayalalitha and Naidu are unlikely to go with UPA, but may go with NDA. Mayawati of course will go with however will make her PM.

So, are we going to see a Third Front Government? Unlikely! The Third Front cannot get more than 120 seats. To form a govt, it has to split the NDA & UPA. The problem is SP-BSP will not work together, neither will Nitish-Lalu, DMK-AIADMK, Shiv Sena-Left. So no chance of a Third Front government.

So, the possibilities are:

1. UPA government (unlikely)
2. NDA government (again unlikely)
3. NDA + Jaya + Naidu + Mamta (possible if NDA cross 200 seats)
4. NDA + Mayawati (possible, but Maya will want the top gaddi)
5. UPA + SP + Left (possible if SP does well, but Left will demand a change in PM)
6. UPA + Left + Maya (again possible, but Maya will demand the PM's post)
7. Third Front + NDA partners + UPA partners (Very unikely)
8. Third Front government + UPA partners supported from outside by Congress (possible scenario as Congress & Left will try to prevent BJP govt)
9. Third Front government + NDA partners supported from outside by BJP (again possible, maybe headed by Maya or Nitish)

These are the scenarios as on date, but one never knows how things will develop as the campaign starts. As they say, watch this space!

The Great Circus

Indian Elections are one of the most colourful events in the world. The 2009 elections to elect the Indian parliament is nothing less than a circus. A vast array of parties and fronts, thousands of candidates, millions of voters and tens of media channels going overboard!
The Indian elections is one big circus that comes every five years (or before!).
This blog is all about the 2009 Lok Sabha elections and will have predictions, events and will follow the Indian right till D-Day May 16th when the Electronic Voting Machines are opened and the result is out.